Carney’s popularity and new Alberta party could lift Liberal seats
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s high favourability, a decisive “stay” referendum and the launch of Alberta Now may help the Liberals win 10‑15 more seats in Calgary and Edmonton, analysts say.
A decisive win for the “stay” side in Alberta’s Oct. 19 separation referendum, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s high personal popularity and the emergence of a new Alberta‑focused right‑of‑centre federal party could enable the governing Liberals to win as many as 10 to 15 more seats in the next federal election, political strategist Stephen Carter told The Hill Times.
"Mark Carney is a big winner from this [referendum]," said Duane Bratt, professor of political science at Mount Royal University.
The referendum saw 75 % of the 2,045,704 voters choose to remain in Canada, while 25 % voted to start the legal process for a binding referendum, according to Elections Alberta. Voter turnout was 65 %.
An Ipsos poll conducted Sept. 18‑22 found 51 % of Albertans held a favourable view of Carney, ahead of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre at 44 %, NDP leader Naheed Nenshi at 35 % and Premier Danielle Smith at 34 %.
Carter said that if Carney’s polling holds until the election, the Liberals could win 10 to 15 more seats in Calgary and Edmonton, including all Edmonton ridings and at least five Calgary seats – McKnight, Skyview, Centre, Confederation and possibly Crowfoot – as now in play.
The Liberals currently hold three Alberta seats – Edmonton Centre (Eleanor Olszewski), Calgary Confederation (Corey Hogan) and, after Matt Jeneroux crossed the floor, Edmonton‑Riverbend. The Conservatives hold 33 of the province’s 37 seats.
Former UCP MLA Drew Barnes is forming a federal party called Alberta Now, modelled on the Bloc Québécois, to promote provincial interests. Janet Brown of Janet Brown Opinion Research said it is too early to gauge the party’s impact, noting it may affect rural ridings but would likely not shift the large Conservative margins there.
Cory Morgan, senior columnist at Western Standard, agreed that Carney’s popularity and Alberta Now could give Liberals an opening in urban areas, while rural seats would remain solidly Conservative.